Making sense of COVID-19 Mortality Numbers - The UK Case

Article by Arik Shimansky from

I previously worked out the worst case scenario for mortality from COVID-19 based on the mortality numbers and some conservastive assumptions about the number of people carrying the virus without symptoms ( The worst case scenario was based on the extreme assumption that all patients that will require ventilation will die because of lack of equipment. I now apply those figures to the UK population based on the 2018 age distribution (

For each age range I applied the worst case scenario to the percentage of the population in that age range. These are the numbers:

Summing up the last column gives a total of 1.6%. This implies that in a worst case scenario, the total expected fatality rate in the UK may climb up to 1.6%. Given that we hope the worst case scenario will not take place we can hope for a lower, hopefully sub 1% mortality rate. 

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