Article by Arik Shimansky from pandemica.info
I previously worked out the worst case scenario for mortality from COVID-19 based on the mortality numbers and some conservastive assumptions about the number of people carrying the virus without symptoms (http://pandemica.info/making-sense-of-the-covid-19-numbers/). The worst case scenario was based on the extreme assumption that all patients that will require ventilation will die because of lack of equipment. I now apply those figures to the UK population based on the 2018 age distribution (https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/).
For each age range I applied the worst case scenario to the percentage of the population in that age range. These are the numbers:
Summing up the last column gives a total of 1.6%. This implies that in a worst case scenario, the total expected fatality rate in the UK may climb up to 1.6%. Given that we hope the worst case scenario will not take place we can hope for a lower, hopefully sub 1% mortality rate.
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