The Cost of Waiting
This is the most informed article that I have read about the spread of the pandemic. I urge everyone that is genuinely interested in understanding the current state of knowledge about the spread of the disease to follow the link at the bottom of the post to the original article.
A very short summary of the conclusion is that every day we delay significant social distancing actions results in a much worst outcome down the line. An analysis of the pandemic until now shows that in countries that are well prepared the mortality rate is below 1%. For countries that are not well prepared, Italy for example, the mortality rate is around 6% and may climb higher. The real risk factor in this pandemic is the readiness of the health system in your country. The bad news is that in most of the world the health systems are not prepared. The only way to reduce these ghastly statistics is to reduce the rate of growth of the disease. This is, for example, what the government in the UK is trying to do. This may allow for slightly better conditions in the health service. The issue is that to achieve a real impact in the growth of the pandemic the steps have to be decisive. Some countries are doing that, others, like the UK and the US, are dithering, for probably economic reasons.
Follow the link below to the full analysis: